A lot has happened since the last DII women’s basketball Power 10. Grand Valley State lost its first game in a calendar year and only Minnesota State remains undefeated. Despite what the national polls say, which had Grand Valley State dropping all the way to No. 3, the Lakers remain No. 1 in the Power 10 rankings.
The Power 10 rankings are getting tighter as we head toward March. Nos. 1-4 are separated by a hair, while Nos. 5-12 are also very closely knit. There will certainly be differences among the national polls and Power 10, but as always, I will do my best to explain why. Remember, these rankings are mine and mine alone; I don’t call upon a voting body or ask the NCAA selection committee for input. Instead, I combine selection metrics with what I am watching on the court with my own eyes and attempt a power ranking that falls between the national polls and regional rankings. I no longer rely on KPI as a deciding factor, as (for one of several reasons) and I will be using RPI more strongly moving forward.
The DII women’s basketball Power 10 (through Feb. 15)
No. 1 Grand Valley State | Previous: 1. So, how does a one-loss team stick above undefeated Minnesota State? It’s a fair question, so let’s breakdown some metrics for the top three (GVSU, Minnesota State and Texas Woman’s).
- RPI: Now, it is tough to say with certainty who is “the best” RPI across regions, but here’s what we know: No team in DII women’s basketball has a better RPI than Grand Valley State. The Lakers’ .641 RPI is No. 1 across every region.
- KPI: As I’ve mentioned, I don’t put much weight into this, but the selection committee clearly does. Grand Valley State is No. 1, Minnesota State No. 2, IUP No. 3, and Texas Woman’s No. 4.
- Strength of schedule: Here, Texas Woman’s and Grand Valley State are tied for the 33rd-toughest schedule in DII at .559. Minnesota State? The Mavericks come in with the 105th toughest schedule in DII.
So you can see, there aren’t any metrics that point to Minnesota State as the overall No. 1 team minus winning percentage. However, with DII, you have to take regionalization into account. Minnesota State is VERY good — elite, even — however, there are no other nationally ranked teams in the NSIC, nor did the Mavericks play any current nationally ranked teams prior to conference play. The Lakers have the GLIAC, a conference where Northern Michigan and Ferris State are also top 20 teams and Wayne State (MI) will likely jump from receiving votes to the top 25 this week. The Lakers have swept No. 12 Northern Michigan, have a 1-0 advantage over No. 17 Ferris State, and split with RV Wayne State, losing its lone game by one point. The Lakers also have non-con wins against Northwood (currently No. 2 in RPI in the Midwest) and fellow Power-10-er, West Texas A&M. NONE of this is to bash Minnesota State; the Mavericks are a strong team and a national championship contender. These are just metrics and facts that support a one-loss team remaining at No. 1 despite what the national polls may tell you.
No. 2 Minnesota State | Previous: 2. Here are the Mavericks, so let’s gush on them for a bit. The Mavs are now 26-0, which is a better run than they had when they won the national championship two years ago. Natalie Bremer is a top-5 scorer in DII women’s basketball with 21.5 points per game. They are the only team scoring 90-plus points per game in DII women’s basketball, dropping 93.9 per game. The Mavericks fuel that high-scoring attack with an aggressive defense, leading DII with 21.1 steals per game and 34.1 turnovers forced per game. This team is fast and athletic all over the court and look to be heading to the DII Women’s Elite Eight.
No. 3 Texas Woman’s | Previous: 3. The Pioneers are another team whose resume screams volumes. They have non-conference wins against Wayne State (MI), UCCS and Pittsburg State, and are the top team in the South Central — a region with four top 20 teams. They have wins against West Texas A&M and Lubbock Christian and are 16-0 in arguably the toughest conference in DII this year. Averee Kleinhans and Gabby Elliott continue to be as formidable a dynamic duo as there is in the division. The Pioneers are battle tested and ready for a tournament run.
No. 4 Indiana (PA) | Previous: 6. I still can’t wrap my head around the fact that IUP is ranked below Gannon in the national polls considering, you know, the Crimson Hawks beat the Golden Knights head-to-head. But here we are. The Crimson Hawks have won five in a row since that one-point stunner of a loss to Clarion and sit at 21-1. They have those two huge wins against Fairmont State and Gannon which has them in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in a deep Atlantic Region. IUP has a very balanced attack, scoring nearly 80 points per game while allowing 55.6 points per game, so it is stacked on both ends of the court. The Crimson Hawks need to remain locked in during these final two weeks of the regular season: They have a rematch against Clarion and huge games against current tournament-bound teams in Seton Hill and Gannon.
No. 5 Colorado Mesa | Previous: 4. Stick a fork in the RMAC, as it is all but done. Okay, perhaps not officially, but the Mavericks have a three-game lead with a 40-point win over the second-place team, so hold the edge on the tiebreaker should an unthinkable collapse occur in these last four games. Olivia Reed Thyne has scored at least 25 points in four-straight games, while double doubling in three of them to give her 13 on the season. If we believe the South Central is the best region in DII right now (it is), then the No. 2 RPI is definitely a top 5 team.
No. 6. Fort Hays State | Previous: 9. The Tigers have won four in a row and sit at 23-2. They still have a big one remaining this season against nationally ranked Pittsburg State, which they already beat once this season, so the Tigers aren’t out of the woods yet. Still, this team has been incredibly consistent all season long. So has DII’s leading scorer Talexa Weeter, who may be getting even better down the stretch. She’s averaging 27.9 points per game, shooting 52.5 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from 3, and has scored at least 31 points in three of her last five games.
No. 7 Harding | Previous: Also considered. The Bisons soar back into the Power 10, thanks to a few other losses these past two weeks by other Power 10 teams. Harding has won seven in a row, which includes two wins over teams that were nationally ranked at the time. The Bisons also have that impressive non-con schedule to start the season with wins over Texas Woman’s and Tampa. The Bisons don’t have an overpowering offense, but they move the ball well and have a very balanced scoring attack among their starting five. Right now, with the second-best RPI in the Central and that winning streak, the Bisons are the team to beat in the GAC.
No. 8 Gannon | Previous: 7. This is where is gets tough, as these final spots are very tight. Yes, Gannon lost 50-47 against Edinboro, but this team is just too good defensively to leave out of the top 10. The Golden Knights allow just 52.0 points per game, a top 5 mark in DII, and if you look at their three losses, it wasn’t the defense that failed them. They held nationally ranked Northern Michigan to 60 points and nationally ranked IUP to 68 points. The Golden Knights have enough scorers, especially in Bri Claxton, to make a run, and that leaves them a top 10 team for now.
No. 9 West Texas A&M | Previous: 5. The Buffs also lost a game since the previous Power 10, but I still think this team is too good to drop completely out of the top 10. When you look at the other teams that could replace them, it makes more sense. Northern Michigan is right there, but the Wildcats just lost their fifth game. Nova Southeastern is strong, but the Sharks have the weakest SoS among top 25 teams and dropped two games in a row to arguably the two toughest teams they played. All that is to say that every team ranked Nos. 9-13 (ish) has great qualities and metrics, and some flaws as well. West Texas A&M has played a tough schedule in a tough region, score well, defend well and have the makings of a tournament team.
No. 10 Lenoir-Rhyne | Previous: NR. People may think this is too high, but the Bears are one of the hottest teams in DII. When you look at some of the other teams — like out west with Central Washington (which just lost to Western Washington, which may be the best team in the West even with six losses) or Cal Poly Pomona (which is very good, but don’t have the SoS or metrics as the other three schools already mentioned) — it gets a bit more clearer. The Bears have won 15 in a row, with big wins over nationally ranked Coker and Lincoln Memorial and recently avenged an early season, overtime loss to UVA Wise. The Bears score a lot of points, more than 86 per game, and look to be the team to catch in the Southeast Region.
Also considered (in alphabetical order): Bentley, Cal Poly Pomona, Central Washington, Columbus State, Lubbock Christian, Nova Southeastern, Northern Michigan, Pittsburg State, Winston-Salem State
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